The domestic polyethylene market will continue to continue

Although the global high oil prices, appreciation of the renminbi, Sinopec general sales and PetroChina's expansion of sales and many other factors, the current domestic polyethylene industry is still booming in both production and sales, with equipment loads exceeding 100%, and the industry is in a high growth trend. In 2006, China's polyethylene production, apparent consumption, import volume, and export volume reached 6.077 million tons, 10.92 million tons, 4.946 million tons, and 39,000 tons respectively, an increase of 13.3%, 3.3%, and -7% over the same period of the previous year. And 3.8%. Exports increased significantly, imports fell, domestic polyethylene self-sufficiency rate reached 55%, and industry dependence decreased by 5.31% year-on-year.

From 2007 to 2010, 11 newly-built polyethylene plants will be completed and put into operation in Dushanzi, Panjin, Daqing, Zhenhai, Tianjin, Fushun and Chengdu. By then, the domestic polyethylene production capacity will exceed 12 million tons/year, the output will reach 10 million tons/year, and the self-sufficiency rate will increase to around 80%. The production capacity of low density polyethylene is 2.03 million tons per year, the production capacity of high density polyethylene is 4.67 million tons per year, and the production capacity of linear low density polyethylene is 5.11 million tons per year. China will become the main force that cannot be ignored in the production of polyethylene in the world.

At the China Polyethylene Market Symposium held in Dalian on August 26th, experts present at the meeting predicted that in the coming period, China's polyethylene industry will enter a peak period of expansion, and its supply capacity will be significantly enhanced, and market demand for supply will continue.

At present, as a general-purpose polymer product, polyethylene has formed products such as low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, linear low-density polyethylene, ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene, and molecular weight and controlled-chain metallocene polyethylene. With its excellent performance, it has become one of the largest and fastest-growing varieties of synthetic resins.

Experts believe that from the perspective of domestic and international production of polyethylene, import and export conditions, downstream consumption and demand conditions, market price trends, and the problems and development trends in the entire industry chain, changes in international crude oil and ethylene prices will affect the future of polyethylene. The most direct and important factors are the production costs and market conditions. In terms of supply and demand, with the gradual release of newly-added device capacity in recent years, the increase in the supply of polyethylene will be maintained at around 13%. The domestic supply capacity will be further enhanced, and the import range will continue to decrease. In terms of the market, Sinopec will receive an overall marketing policy. Affected, market volatility will gradually weaken, the market as a whole will be flat steady; in terms of sales, with the continuous optimization of the structure of PetroChina, Sinopec, the allocation of polyethylene resources will be more reasonable, internal unreasonable competition will gradually be eliminated, the industry market The leading forces in China will gradually strengthen. In 2007, the ethylene tariff was adjusted to zero and the import cost of polyethylene was reduced.

At the same time, experts also pointed out that the prospects for the development of polyethylene in China should not be completely optimistic. Because China is facing greater pressure from the Middle East and surrounding regions and countries. In contrast, China's polyethylene production capacity, output, product quality and process technology have a large gap with foreign countries, mainly reflected in: more general-purpose materials, special materials less; middle and low-grade products, high-end products, low technology content, There are many products with low added value, few products with high profits and high added value; production technologies are relatively backward, and the construction of enterprises is mainly left on the scale of expansion. 80% of high-strength polyethylene membranes and pipes are also imported, and the linear low density of the leading products Polyethylene is still a single species.

The meeting emphasized that the next few years will be an opportunity period for the development of China's polyethylene industry and an important period for the adjustment of product structure. It is very important to increase the overall competitiveness of China's polyethylene. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the organic combination of products and markets, and to further increase the scale of polyethylene production while increasing the production of polyethylene. In particular, through the digestion and absorption of advanced production technologies imported from abroad, the brand name of new products is mainly used, and the use of chemical building materials is vigorously promoted to develop thermoplastic pressure pipes and promote the lightweight, composite and functionalization of plastic products. With the development of high value-added resins, we have further developed China's complete set of technologies with independent intellectual property rights, which fundamentally provide guarantees for structural adjustment and new product development of polyethylene products. On the other hand, international oil and other energy prices have risen sharply, and competition in downstream industries such as plastics and related products has become fiercer and risks have increased. Domestic production, trade, and consumer companies should make good use of futures markets to transfer price fluctuation risks and form a brand-new mechanism for the steady development of the capital market escort industry. Futures and domestic plastic products in the spot market must form effective and positive interactions to promote the healthy development of the polyethylene market.

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