Industry insiders predicted on October 10th that in November Asian styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) spot prices might regain their upward momentum due to the recovery in demand from downstream tire manufacturers, strong natural rubber prices, and rebound in raw material prices for butadiene.

According to ICIS data, as of the week of Oct. 3, the spot price of the SBR 1502 in the Asian market was US$2,450 to US$2,500 (tonne, the same, CIF, China), which was the same as the price of the previous week. SBR market participants anticipate that SBR prices in Asia will remain stable for the rest of October, as merchants will still adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

However, industry insiders believe that after the US imposes a punitive tariff of 25% on China's imported tires on September 26, Chinese tire makers may gradually increase their output in order to increase their exports to the U.S. market. A major SBR producer in Asia said that higher natural rubber prices will also help boost SBR prices.

Since the beginning of September, the price of natural rubber in the Asian market has risen by about US$500 and has now exceeded US$3,000 (FOB, Malaysia). On October 9, the closing price of SMR 20 natural rubber on the Malaysia Rubber Exchange was US$3033 (FOB, Malaysia).

In mid-August, after the news that three major rubber-producing countries in the world—Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia agreed to cut natural rubber production and exports, the international natural rubber price rose sharply. According to the tripartite agreement, the export volume of natural rubber from these three countries will be reduced by 300,000 tons this year and next year, and the output will also be reduced by 150,000 tons. These three countries account for about 70% of the global natural rubber production.

At the same time, the price of butadiene, the main raw material of SBR, is expected to rebound next month because South Korea will resume production of its synthetic rubber plant. The synthetic rubber production facilities in Korea's Kumho Petrochemical Company in Yeosu and Ulsan will undergo a three-week shutdown overhaul from October 10th. Kumho Petrochemical is Asia's largest synthetic rubber producer and a major consumer of butadiene. Market participants predict that in November Asian butadiene prices may exceed US$2,000 (CFR, Northeast Asia).

However, there are also some market participants who believe that in November and December Asian SBR prices will remain weak and may even decline, mainly due to the dimming global economic outlook. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have recently issued reports that lowered the global economic growth rate and warned that the global economy is in a recession. The World Bank stated that weak exports and slower investment growth will lead to a slowdown in China's GDP growth to 7.7% this year, compared to 9.3% last year. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth this year will slow down to 3.3%, and next year's growth rate will be 3.6%.

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