· New energy subsidy policy to adjust bus companies or will die 80%

Recently, a version of the latest version of the 2016 financial subsidies for new energy vehicles has been circulated on the Internet. The draft mainly released four aspects: 1 passenger car subsidies are not changed; 2 pure electric and plug-in hybrid buses are based on energy. Density is subsidized, and cruising range is used as a necessary indicator; pure electric buses loaded with fast-filled batteries are subsidized according to the charging ratio of the energy storage system; 3 technical indicators of logistics vehicles are still being formulated, and subsidies are suspended. 4 Subsidy policies may be introduced this month.
New energy bus subsidy standards in the new version of the subsidy draft:
1. The pure electric bus with energy-type battery, regardless of the type of energy storage system, regardless of the length of the vehicle, does not investigate Ekg, and will continue to drive mileage >200km (constant speed method) as a necessary condition for subsidies. The subsidy amount is 1,800 yuan / kWh, and the total amount does not exceed 350,000 yuan / car. Among them, the energy density of the battery system involves the subsidy coefficient: a) 80~95Wh/kg: coefficient is 0.8; b) 95~115Wh/kg: coefficient is 1.0; c)>115Wh/kg: coefficient is 1.2.
2, plug-in hybrid bus, regardless of the type of energy storage system, regardless of the length of the car for subsidies, the driving range of > 50km (constant speed method) as a necessary condition for subsidies, the amount of subsidies 3,000 yuan / kWh, the total amount does not exceed 150,000 / car.
3, pure electric bus loaded with fast-filled batteries, regardless of the type of energy storage system, regardless of the length of the car, do not check the driving range and Ekg for subsidies. The subsidy amount is 3,000 yuan / kWh, the total amount does not exceed 300,000 / car. The charging capacity of the energy storage system is used as a subsidy factor reference, a) 3~5C: coefficient is 0.8; b) 5~10C: coefficient is 1.0; c)>10C: coefficient is 1.2.
Compared with the original subsidy policy, the draft of the new version of the new energy bus subsidy policy mainly has the following changes:
First, pure electric vehicles with a range of less than 200 kilometers and plug-in hybrids with a range of less than 50 kilometers will not be subsidized. In the first eight batches of tax-free catalogues that have been released, a total of 1661 pure electric bus models are involved, of which 342 models have not yet reached the standard of 200 km cruising range, accounting for 20% of the total models. Plug-in hybrid buses all meet the goal of a cruising range of more than 50 kilometers.
Second, the amount of subsidies: the maximum number of pure electric buses is set at 350,000/car, and the plug-in hybrid bus is set at 150,000/car. Compared with the previous pure electric bus, the maximum compensation is 600,000/car, which is 42%. , plug-in subsidies 300,000 / car, down 50%.
Third, the original subsidy policy inspection is a combination of factors such as Ekg, body length, and cruising range. The new version of the subsidy policy abandons the Ekg standard and the length of the vehicle, and uses the battery energy density of the vehicle as an indicator.
Judging from these changes, the new version of the subsidy policy is undoubtedly directed to subsidize the loading of high-energy density batteries, high range of vehicles, then the development of the final model will depend on the price of the power battery. Take the pure electric bus as an example. If the battery price is lower than the subsidy price, then the distribution capacity can be up to the maximum subsidy of 350,000 under the premise of satisfying the cruising range, according to the subsidy factor of 1, and the power distribution of 195kWh. If the battery price is higher than the subsidy, the distribution capacity can meet the 200km cruising range.
In response to the adjustment of the passenger car part of the new version of the subsidy draft, the reporter interviewed a number of mainstream manufacturers of new energy buses such as Yutong, Zhongtong, Jinlv and Ankai. Some companies said that the energy density mentioned in the new version of the subsidy draft does not mention the monomer or pack. If it is the energy density of the whole vehicle pack, most of the models currently in the catalogue have an energy density of 90- A battery between 100Wh/kg, then only get a lower gear subsidy. At present, the cost of the battery is between 2,300 yuan / kWh - 2,800 yuan / kWh. In this way, the new energy bus does not have a competitive advantage compared with the fuel passenger car, which is not conducive to the promotion of new energy buses. “The bus companies have died at least 80%, and mainstream companies can barely survive, but it is also very difficult.” “The bus subsidy has dropped significantly. The comparative advantages of new energy buses and fuel buses will not exist. If true, the demand for new energy buses will be There will be a cliff drop."
Some enterprises also believe that the purpose of subsidy adjustment may be to hope that the bus industry technology will accumulate and avoid low-level products flooding the market. In 2015, the industry had a big problem, deviating from the normal development of the industry, and the country’s adjustment was also well-intentioned. New energy is still the direction, and promoting technological progress and industrial development is the goal. Regardless of how the subsidy policy is adjusted, the new energy auto industry is still dominated by policies. It only hopes that the policy can be implemented as soon as possible. There is no policy support. The new energy bus companies are basically holding a wait-and-see attitude. Only a few companies with strong financial strength dare to sell cars.

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