Since February 2011, rubber prices have entered a bear market for five years, with a cumulative decline of nearly 70%. From the product price cycle, rubber prices are in the downtrend channel. At present, the inventory of natural rubber has decreased, and the contradiction between supply and demand of rubber has eased. From the perspective of rubber costs, there is not much room for price decline.

Liu Xintian, secretary-general of the China Commodity Development Research Center, believes that the overall decline in natural rubber is not necessarily unfavorable to the industry. The analysis of the characteristics of commodities shows that the decline in natural rubber in 2015 may be another overall integration of the natural rubber industry, which is expected to become “broken”. "After the "right."

Why does rubber fall? In this regard, professionals believe that there are three reasons. First, from the perspective of product price cycles, rubber prices are currently in the downtrend channel. It can be seen from the 1509 week k-line chart of Hujiao that the price of rubber is in a down cycle from 1996 to 2001; from 2001 to 2008, it was in an upward cycle, and in 2008, after a financial crisis, the cliff fell, and then rose again. In 2011; rubber prices have entered the down cycle since 2011. Therefore, due to the rubber price cycle, rubber is likely to continue to decline and innovation is low.

Secondly, from the peak season of products, July-August is the peak season for rubber production at home and abroad, and it is also the low season for traditional seasonal demand. Therefore, the overall demand for the rubber market is sluggish and the price continues to fluctuate at the bottom.

Thirdly, from the perspective of the industrial chain and the overall situation of the industry, the demand for rubber downstream tires is weak. In recent years, the shrinking of automobile sales has directly affected the demand for rubber, and the entire industrial chain has entered a low state. It is understood that from the data released by the Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales in 2011 and 2012 were all lower than 5% year-on-year. Although it rebounded in 2013 and 2014, the overall situation is still in a downturn. In recent years, the downstream tire industry has been continuously affected by international trade frictions, and has been judged as anti-dumping by Europe and the United States, which has a large negative impact on the rubber tire industry chain.

Looking ahead to the rubber market, rubber prices will continue to fall in the later period, but the decline is limited. First of all, from the inertia of product trend, rubber prices are beginning to fall in the sixth wave of the big down channel. From the trend point of view, the price will continue to decline, and from the previous five-wave fall time span, the downward trend will be at least It will continue until the end of October and the beginning of November.

Secondly, from the current supply and demand situation of products, the current natural rubber inventory has decreased, and the contradiction between rubber supply and demand has eased. It is understood that as of the end of July 2015, global natural rubber inventories fell from 2.063 million tons at the end of 2014 to 1.845 million tons.

Thirdly, from the perspective of the product industry chain, although automobile tires have internal and external problems, from the perspective of emerging markets and tire wear, the increase in emerging automobile markets such as India and the replacement of tires will create new demand points for rubber. It also forms a certain support for rubber prices.

Finally, from the perspective of rubber costs, the current price of rubber has fallen. It is understood that Liao Xiaowen, director of the Agricultural Science and Technology Extension Service Center of Qiongzhong County, Hainan Province, said at the end of 2014: "The current price of dry rubber is about 11,000 yuan / ton, while the production cost of private rubber is 8,000 yuan / ton, and the farmer's price is 12,000 yuan / Tons, the current price of rubber has fallen below the cost price of the farmer." This statement was confirmed by Hai Jing Rubber Secretary Dong Jingjun.

Liu Xintian, secretary-general of China Commodity Development Research Center, believes that China's natural rubber mainly relies on imports, and its dependence on foreign countries exceeds 60%. In 2014, it relied on foreign investment as high as 80.0%. Now the domestic natural rubber prices have fallen to the bottom, which is conducive to the integration of China's domestic natural rubber industry and increase the domestic natural rubber self-sufficiency rate. In 2015, China's natural rubber self-sufficiency rate is expected to increase to 40%.

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