A new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open on November 14. On November 10th, the reporter learned from a number of market monitoring agencies that the international crude oil price fluctuated around $94/barrel. In the early morning of November 15, the maximum retail price of domestic refined oil is expected to be lowered by another 100 yuan per ton again. fall".

According to Treasure Island's calculation, as of November 8th, the reference price of crude oil (Brent, Brent Dtd, Dubai, ESPO) average price of 106.26 US dollars, a change rate of -2.00%, on the morning of November 15 gasoline and diesel corresponding downward adjustment The rate is 100 yuan to 120 yuan / ton.

In addition, according to market analysts, due to the transfer of negative diesel from two barrels of oil north refinery, the resources of North Oil's southwards decreased, and the “two barrels of oil” strained diesel resources in parts of North China, East China, Yanjiang, Southwest, and diesel. The wholesale price continues to rise.

Faster oil upgrades

Longzhong Petrochemical Network analyst Xiaorui Rui pointed out to reporters that the current crude oil market supply and demand side, the policy surface is mostly bearish, the market is still bearish expectations of oil prices in the short term, he expects this week, the probability of weaker oil price shocks, domestic oil prices are expected in the next week Fourth, the seventh time in the coming year.

At the same time, with the end of the fourth “quality limit” for gasoline upgrading countries in the country at the end of the year, PetroChina and Sinopec have accelerated the pace of upgrading in many provinces and cities, and this round of oil prices has dropped to hedge oil prices after the upgrade of quality and reduce prices due to upgrades. Market resistance encountered.

It is understood that at present, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have completed the upgrading of gasoline quality. For gasoline, both Shanghai and Jiangsu have reached the fifth stage of refined oil quality standards, and the Zhejiang region has reached the national standard.

Taking Shanghai as an example, the reduction in oil prices at 0:00 on November 1 offsets the price of oil after the oil upgrade. This is equivalent to a price reduction of 25 yuan/ton for gasoline in Shanghai (an average of 0.02 yuan/liter), and the National Development and Reform Commission lowered the price. The rate is 75 yuan per ton.

Sichuan, Tianjin, Hainan and other places also required the completion of the fourth-grade gasoline replacement and upgrading at the end of this month. Among them, Tianjin No. 93 gasoline increased 290 yuan per ton.

Treasure Island analyst Yu Jinbo said that since the last time the domestic reduction was honored, the current local gasoline prices have basically kept rising. Among them, gasoline was mostly caused by the product number upgrade, but the price hike by oil price cuts was limited.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information, as of November 6, the wholesale price of 93# gasoline for “two barrels of oil” was RMB 9,086/ton, which was RMB 22/ton higher than that on November 1.

China Unicom Information analyst Ma Yan said that in addition to the partial upgrade of oil upgrading and forced gasoline prices to increase in sporadic cases, gasoline sales in most regions continued to be weak, and prices showed a downward trend. Among them, the gasoline transfer prices in other provinces and cities in the PetroChina region were reduced more than each. Twenty-five yuan, which is conducive to China Petrol Sales Corporation to increase profits, increase its sales enthusiasm and the flexibility to set prices.

0# reduction in diesel supply

Although the reduction in the price of oil is expected to increase, domestic diesel prices have continued to rise against the trend.

According to Zhuo Chuang's statistics on sales prices of “two barrels of oil” in more than 20 provinces and cities in China, as of November 7th, the wholesale price of 0# diesel was RMB 8,049/ton, which was higher than the average price of November 1st. Yuan / ton.

Xu Ying, an analyst with Longzhong Petrochemical Network, said that with the cooling of the weather, some refineries have begun to produce negative-label diesel, and 0# diesel supply has decreased; and the quality of oil products has been gradually upgraded, and refinery processes have been upgraded and overhauled, making some regions short-term. The supply of resources is tight.

Starting from the end of October, the allocation of diesel resources in Central China, Southwest China, and other regions became slightly tighter, and wholesale prices continued to rise. As a result, CNPC increased the allocation price of diesel in the extra-regional markets, and diesel prices (standard items) in other provinces and cities were increased by RMB 25/t. Balance the increase in wholesale prices.

"The gasoline has been pushed up due to product number upgrades. Diesel fuel is mostly due to tight resources or aggressive pricing. The margin is about 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton," Yu Jinbo said. "However, the deal concessions are still there. With frequent movements, the mid-and-downstream users generally hold a rational wait-and-see attitude, and the market trading atmosphere is depressed. Affected by this crude oil bearish factor, coupled with the relatively slow end-use consumption of the market, the domestic market is expected to reduce or expand, and the downward pressure on oil prices in the later period will be greater.

Ma Yan also believes that the recent sharp rebound in crude oil may be smaller, continue to suppress the operator's operating mentality, and with the arrival of diesel resources in succession, is expected this week around the gasoline and diesel market will gradually stabilize.  

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