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Temporary gap in the car field Toyota's unfinished game in China

On July 26, during the Provincial Key Project Work Conference held by the Guangdong Provincial Government, Zhong Yangsheng, a member of the Standing Committee of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and Deputy Governor of Guangdong Province, officially revealed that Guangzhou Toyota’s vehicle project had received approval from the State Council. This news was soon confirmed by both the Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group (GAC) and Toyota China, marking a major milestone in their long-awaited partnership. The deal, which has been in the works for over a year, finally cleared the most challenging hurdle. "Like two people falling in love, the two sides decided to join forces, and now the key person—the parents—has given their approval," one insider remarked. While the official marriage certificate hasn't arrived yet, both parties are planning to finalize preparations within the next month or so. It's a positive development for both GAC and Toyota, who have been working closely toward this goal. As the dust begins to settle on this strategic alliance, the previous tensions and unresolved issues between the two companies seem to fade into the background. Now, all involved must look ahead and focus on building a strong, sustainable partnership. Toyota’s presence in China is well-established, with joint ventures in cities like Changchun, Tianjin, Chengdu, and Guangzhou. While Jiamei, a joint venture between GAC and Toyota, has already used up two passenger car joint-venture slots, Toyota still has one commercial vehicle slot left. That single seat could be pivotal for GAC, as it aims to expand its footprint in the commercial vehicle market. According to sources, GAC is preparing to sign a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Toyota, covering not only passenger vehicles but also expanding into commercial vehicles. With the recent approval of the Guangzhou Toyota vehicle project, GAC now operates three major passenger car projects in Guangzhou: Guangzhou Honda, the Honda export base, and Guangzhou Toyota. However, the commercial vehicle sector remains a gap. Currently, GAC's commercial vehicle subsidiaries, such as Yangcheng Automobile, Guangzhou Isuzu, and Guangzhou Denway, haven’t achieved significant market success. To meet the 15% market share target set by the new automobile industry policy, GAC still has a long way to go. Given the limited growth potential in the passenger vehicle segment, it makes sense for GAC to focus on strengthening its position in commercial vehicles. But will Toyota truly commit to both sectors? Considering Toyota’s current layout in China, FAW already holds a joint venture for both passenger and commercial vehicles. If Toyota assigns the remaining commercial vehicle slot to GAC, it would create a balanced partnership between FAW and GAC, reinforcing a north-south strategy. Could Toyota seek new partners outside of FAW and GAC? One possibility is Brilliance Jinbei. Toyota has maintained technical support for the Brilliance Jinbei Haishi Passenger Car Project, and while no official announcement has been made, there is speculation that this could evolve into a full-scale joint venture. Toyota’s response was cautious: "Further cooperation with Brilliance Jinbei is not impossible, according to Chinese government policies." The final decision remains unclear, but where this new joint venture is located could become a critical bargaining chip in future negotiations between GAC and Toyota. As the automotive landscape in China continues to shift, the coming months will be crucial in determining the direction of these evolving partnerships.

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